Hey guys! Just a quick update here. Obviously everyone's projects are basically done by this point (including mine) and I'm super excited to report that I finally finished my draft for the final paper and have sent it to my advisers for review. I'll probably add to and edit it throughout this coming week, and hope to have it completely polished by next Monday. (I'm also working on figuring out a way to share it to this blog, so that anyone who wants to read it can.) It ended up being the longest paper I've written in my high school career, so that's exciting.
I also have my first presentation rehearsal tomorrow, during which we'll see how successful I was at trimming everything down to fit the time limit. I hope to see you all at my final presentation. (date still TBD, but I'll let you know!)
Sunday, April 20, 2014
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Week 10: End Stretch
Hey guys! I'm going to apologize in advance for a briefer blog post. As it turns out, I've already talked about everything I'm planning to include in my final paper; there might be a bit more detail, but these blogs should give you an idea of the topics I'm going to cover and the arguments I'm planning to make.
Unfortunately, the final paper is a lot harder than I was expecting it to be! I've finished an outline and the skeleton of the paper, but right now I'm struggling to fill it in so that I can create a persuasive argument that isn't too repetitive; (you'd be surprised how many times I've used the word "Econophysics" in the first three pages alone...) not to mention citations, which are close to the top of my list of least favorite things.
Everything else about my project is winding down; I'm meeting with Dr. Frieden as usual next Tuesday, but most likely for the last time, and of course I've also begun work on my final presentation. Due to scheduling conflicts, I didn't go into the lab this past week like I thought I was going to, but I'm planning to make up that time this coming week, in addition to finishing my final paper and presentation draft.
I actually have family in town this weekend, so I haven't had time to do much of anything (hence the really short blog post), but I'll resume what's left of my project on Monday. Have a great week, everyone!
Unfortunately, the final paper is a lot harder than I was expecting it to be! I've finished an outline and the skeleton of the paper, but right now I'm struggling to fill it in so that I can create a persuasive argument that isn't too repetitive; (you'd be surprised how many times I've used the word "Econophysics" in the first three pages alone...) not to mention citations, which are close to the top of my list of least favorite things.
Everything else about my project is winding down; I'm meeting with Dr. Frieden as usual next Tuesday, but most likely for the last time, and of course I've also begun work on my final presentation. Due to scheduling conflicts, I didn't go into the lab this past week like I thought I was going to, but I'm planning to make up that time this coming week, in addition to finishing my final paper and presentation draft.
I actually have family in town this weekend, so I haven't had time to do much of anything (hence the really short blog post), but I'll resume what's left of my project on Monday. Have a great week, everyone!
Saturday, April 5, 2014
Week 9: Mixing Metaphors
As I'm reading everyone's blog posts, and seeing how everything is beginning to wind down, I keep having to go take a few deep breaths and think calming thoughts. It's crazy how fast this project has gone!
I'm still doing some work with the sandpiles (next week I will be working to determine if their dynamics behave differently at different frequencies projected by a speaker system) but I don't think the actual experimental results will play a role in my final product or presentation. (Rather, the things I've learned about sandpiles and avalanche dynamics will be larger factors.) On the reading front, I still have one-and-a-half more books to read (one-half about sandpiles and the markets; one about fractals and the markets) and I've started work on my final paper and presentation!
On that front, I'm planning to have my final paper rough draft finished by this coming Thursday, and then after that I'll start on the presentation. (I'm hoping that having everything already outlined in the paper will make the presentation easier, but I guess we'll see.)
And then... I'll be done?
As long as we're talking about things giving me anxiety issues, fitting my presentation into twenty minutes is going to be a bit of a bear. I'm guessing I'll be talking about as fast as those prescription drug commercial narrators, where they try to tell you the side effects as fast as possible so you don't have time to wonder why you'd take headache medicine if it's going to give you diarrhea, nausea, and dizziness.
This week, I will be discussing the work of Nassim Taleb, who I mentioned a few weeks ago. I read his book The Black Swan, which concerns unpredictable events, both in and outside the markets.
Taleb argues that events that are considered by most to be extremely rare (for example, a black swan) are actually more common than would be expected. He goes on to detail different events that he considers to be black swans; most of them take place in the financial markets. (It turns out that his "black swans" become metaphors for the fat-tailed distributions I've been going on about for the last few weeks.)
However, what distinguishes Taleb's work is that he argues that these events are not only extreme (and therefore occur more often than a typical bell curve would have us believe) but he also argues that these events are inherently unpredictable.
This is where a friend of Taleb's, a French physicist named Didier Sornette, comes in. Sornette, who has background in geophysics and other modeling involving critical events, agrees with Taleb about extreme events being a more common occurrence than the traditional bell curve would lead us to believe. However, he argues that rather than being silent-but-deadly black swans, these events would be better-represented by Dragon Kings; if you "listen" the right way, you can hear them coming.
Sornette can back his claim up; he's actually predicted the last few financial crises (and made quite a bit of money off of it, too.) If you guys are interested, you can watch his Ted Talk here. It's really interesting, and in my opinion, makes a better case for Dragon Kings than for Black Swans.
Hope you all are having a great week!
I'm still doing some work with the sandpiles (next week I will be working to determine if their dynamics behave differently at different frequencies projected by a speaker system) but I don't think the actual experimental results will play a role in my final product or presentation. (Rather, the things I've learned about sandpiles and avalanche dynamics will be larger factors.) On the reading front, I still have one-and-a-half more books to read (one-half about sandpiles and the markets; one about fractals and the markets) and I've started work on my final paper and presentation!
On that front, I'm planning to have my final paper rough draft finished by this coming Thursday, and then after that I'll start on the presentation. (I'm hoping that having everything already outlined in the paper will make the presentation easier, but I guess we'll see.)
And then... I'll be done?
As long as we're talking about things giving me anxiety issues, fitting my presentation into twenty minutes is going to be a bit of a bear. I'm guessing I'll be talking about as fast as those prescription drug commercial narrators, where they try to tell you the side effects as fast as possible so you don't have time to wonder why you'd take headache medicine if it's going to give you diarrhea, nausea, and dizziness.
This week, I will be discussing the work of Nassim Taleb, who I mentioned a few weeks ago. I read his book The Black Swan, which concerns unpredictable events, both in and outside the markets.
Taleb argues that events that are considered by most to be extremely rare (for example, a black swan) are actually more common than would be expected. He goes on to detail different events that he considers to be black swans; most of them take place in the financial markets. (It turns out that his "black swans" become metaphors for the fat-tailed distributions I've been going on about for the last few weeks.)
However, what distinguishes Taleb's work is that he argues that these events are not only extreme (and therefore occur more often than a typical bell curve would have us believe) but he also argues that these events are inherently unpredictable.
This is where a friend of Taleb's, a French physicist named Didier Sornette, comes in. Sornette, who has background in geophysics and other modeling involving critical events, agrees with Taleb about extreme events being a more common occurrence than the traditional bell curve would lead us to believe. However, he argues that rather than being silent-but-deadly black swans, these events would be better-represented by Dragon Kings; if you "listen" the right way, you can hear them coming.
Sornette can back his claim up; he's actually predicted the last few financial crises (and made quite a bit of money off of it, too.) If you guys are interested, you can watch his Ted Talk here. It's really interesting, and in my opinion, makes a better case for Dragon Kings than for Black Swans.
Hope you all are having a great week!
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